From 2cc027a028f1c826bd29a641dae0ee9630dc4708 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: sbidari Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2024 17:32:42 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] add details about sample target --- hub-config/tasks.json | 8 +++++--- model-output/README.md | 16 +++++++++++++--- 2 files changed, 18 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/hub-config/tasks.json b/hub-config/tasks.json index e648f21..e83a08e 100644 --- a/hub-config/tasks.json +++ b/hub-config/tasks.json @@ -132,12 +132,14 @@ "sample": { "output_type_id_params": { "is_required": false, - "type": "integer", + "type": "character", + "max_length": 15, "min_samples_per_task": 100, - "max_samples_per_task": 100 + "max_samples_per_task": 100, + "compound_taskid_set": ["reference_date"] }, "value": { - "type": "integer", + "type": "double", "minimum": 0 } } diff --git a/model-output/README.md b/model-output/README.md index 7fc86f7..0062c7a 100644 --- a/model-output/README.md +++ b/model-output/README.md @@ -169,7 +169,7 @@ Values in the `output_type` column are either - "quantile" or - "samples". -This value indicates whether that row corresponds to a quantile forecast or sample trajectories for weekly incident hospital admissions. +This value indicates whether that row corresponds to a quantile forecast or sample trajectories for weekly incident hospital admissions. Samples can be submitted either for individual modeling tasks, where each `horizon` and `location` is treated independently, or as a part of a compound modeling task that encodes dependencies across forecast `horizon` and `location`. ### `output_type_id` Values in the `output_type_id` column specify identifying information for the output type. @@ -217,8 +217,18 @@ Teams must provide the following 23 quantiles: #### sample output -When the predictions are samples, values in the `output_type_id` column are indexes for the samples. -*More details to be added here* +When the predictions are samples, values in the `output_type_id` column are indexes for the samples. The `output_type_id` is used to indicate the dependence across multiple task id variables when samples come from a joint predictive distribution. For example, samples from a joint predictive distribution across `horizon`, will share `output_type_id` for predictions for different horizons within a same `location` as below: + +| origin_date|horizon| location | output_type| output_type_id | value | +|:---------- |:-----:|:-----:| :-------- | :------------ | :---- | +| 2024-10-15 | -1 | MA | sample | s0 | - | +| 2024-10-15 | 0 | MA | sample | s0 | - | +| 2024-10-15 | 1 | MA | sample | s0 | - | +| 2024-10-15 | -1 | MA | sample | s1 | - | +| 2024-10-15 | 0 | MA | sample | s1 | - | +| 2024-10-15 | 1 | MA | sample | s1 | - | + +Here, `output_type_id = s0` specifies that the predictions for horizons -1, 0, and 1 are part of the same joint distribution. More details on sample output can be found in the [hubverse documentation of sample output type](https://hubverse.io/en/latest/user-guide/sample-output-type.html). ### `value`