Manifold is the world's most popular prediction market website.
Manifold lets you bet on upcoming events using play money. As other users bet against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market. Bet on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Our mission: Provide the most accurate, real-time predictions on any event. Combat misleading news by incentivising traders to be fast and correct. Help people make more informed decisions by improving their model of the future.
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Basics and How It Works:
- Prediction markets allow betting on future event outcomes.
- Prices of shares represent the probability of events occurring.
- Anyone can create markets on any topic.
- Manifold uses play-money (mana) instead of real currency.
- The platform has proven to be effective at forecasting, despite not using real money.
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Using Manifold:
- Users start with 200 mana for free.
- Mana can be used to bet, create markets, and promote questions.
- Prize points can be earned and converted to mana or donated to charities.
- Users can earn mana through correct predictions, successful trades, creating popular markets, completing quests, and referring friends.
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Types of Questions:
- Personal (fun wagers, recommendations, accountability goals)
- News and current events
- Politics, sports, economics
- Impactful causes and research
- Project management
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Best Practices for Creating Markets:
- Set clear resolution criteria
- Include a resolution date
- Write an engaging description
- Add the market to relevant topics/groups
- Share your own opinion
- Promote your market
- Subsidize your market for increased activity
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Tips for Becoming a Good Trader:
- Find inaccurate probabilities
- React quickly to news
- Buy low, sell high
- Create innovative answers in free response markets
- Sort markets by close date or newest
- Follow successful traders
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Market Resolution:
- Market creators resolve their own markets
- Resolution should be timely and based on predetermined criteria
- Options include Yes/No, Partial, or multiple choice resolutions
- N/A resolution (market cancellation) is limited to moderators
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Market Mechanics:
- Prices and probabilities are determined by trader activity
- Users buy shares of outcomes, with each correct share worth 1 mana at resolution
- Manifold uses a combination of limit orders and automated market maker
- Limit orders allow betting at specific probabilities
- Liquidity pool affects market stability and tradability
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Payouts and Loans:
- Payouts are calculated based on the number of shares owned
- Loans (now deprecated) used to provide daily returns on bet amounts
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Miscellaneous:
- Users can donate to various charities using prize points
- Customizable notification settings
- Account deletion process explained
- Content moderation policy and reporting process outlined
- Official API available
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Unique Features:
- Largest range of prediction topics due to user-generated content
- Free to play with prizes available in select regions
- Community-driven question creation and resolution
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Fair Play and Dispute Resolution:
- Community guidelines enforce fair play
- Disputes can be reported to moderators for review
- Markets may be re-resolved in cases of abuse, misresolution, or technical failures