remove dead end-to-end test

in favour of direct test of prior_predictive_plot

pipeline/test/end-to-end/test_prior_predictive.jl

@@ -9,5 +9,117 @@ P = pipetype(; testmode = true, nchains = 1, ndraws = 2000, priorpredictive = tr
 
 ##
 
-inference_method = make_inference_method(P)
 inference_config = make_inference_configs(P) |> first
+
+missingdata = Dict("y_t" => missing, "I_t" => fill(1.0, 100), "truth_I0" => 1.0,
+    "truth_gi_mean" => inference_config.gi_mean)
+results = generate_inference_results(missingdata, inference_config, P)
+
+res = results["inference_results"]
+
+gens = generate_quantiles_for_targets(
+    res, results["epiprob"].epi_model.data, [0.025, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.975])
+
+gens.log_I_t
+
+##
+using CairoMakie
+
+function _make_prior_plot_title(config)
+    igp_str = string(config.igp)
+    latent_model_str = config.latent_model_name |> uppercase
+    gi_mean_str = config.gi_mean |> string
+    T_str = config.tspan[2] |> string
+    return "Prior pred. IGP: $(igp_str), latent model: $(latent_model_str), truth gi mean: $(gi_mean_str), T: $(T_str)"
+end
+_make_prior_plot_title(config)
+
+function _setup_levels(ps)
+    n_levels = length(ps)
+    qs = mapreduce(vcat, ps) do percentile
+        [percentile / 2, 1 - percentile / 2]
+    end |> x -> [0.5; x]
+    return qs, n_levels
+end
+##
+# _get_priorpred_plot_title(results["inference_config"])
+##
+
+function prior_predictive_plot(config, output, epiprob;
+        ps = [0.05, 0.1, 0.25],
+        bottom_alpha = 0.1,
+        top_alpha = 0.5,
+        case_color = :black,
+        logI_color = :purple,
+        rt_color = :blue,
+        Rt_color = :green,
+        figsize = (750, 600))
+    @assert all(0 .<= ps .< 0.5) "Percentiles must be in the range [0, 0.5)"
+    prior_pred_plot_title = _make_prior_plot_title(config)
+    qs, n_levels = _setup_levels(sort(ps))
+    opacity_scale = range(bottom_alpha, top_alpha, length = n_levels) |> collect
+
+    # Create the figure and axes
+    fig = Figure(size = figsize)
+    ax11 = Axis(fig[1, 1]; xlabel = "t", ylabel = "Cases")
+    ax12 = Axis(fig[1, 2]; xlabel = "t", ylabel = "log(Incidence)")
+    ax21 = Axis(fig[2, 1]; xlabel = "t", ylabel = "Exp. growth rate")
+    ax22 = Axis(fig[2, 2]; xlabel = "t", ylabel = "Reproduction number")
+    linkxaxes!(ax11, ax21)
+    linkxaxes!(ax12, ax22)
+    Label(fig[0, :]; text = prior_pred_plot_title, fontsize = 16)
+
+    # Quantile calculations
+    gen_y_t = mapreduce(hcat, output.generated) do gen
+        gen.generated_y_t
+    end |> X -> timeseries_samples_into_quantiles(X, qs)
+    gen_quantities = generate_quantiles_for_targets(output, epiprob.epi_model.data, qs)
+
+    # Plot the prior predictive samples
+    # Cases
+    f = findfirst(!ismissing, gen_y_t[:, 1])
+    lines!(ax11, 1:size(gen_y_t, 1), gen_y_t[:, 1],
+        color = case_color, linewidth = 3, label = "Median")
+    for i in 1:n_levels
+        band!(ax11, f:size(gen_y_t, 1), gen_y_t[f:size(gen_y_t, 1), (2 * i)],
+            gen_y_t[f:size(gen_y_t, 1), (2 * i) + 1],
+            color = (case_color, opacity_scale[i]),
+            label = "($(ps[i]*100)-$((1 - ps[i])*100))%")
+    end
+    vlines!(ax11, [f], color = case_color, linestyle = :dash, label = "Obs. window")
+    axislegend(ax11; position = :lt, framevisible = false)
+
+    # Other quantities
+    for (ax, target, c) in zip(
+        [ax12, ax21, ax22], [gen_quantities.log_I_t, gen_quantities.rt, gen_quantities.Rt],
+        [logI_color, rt_color, Rt_color])
+        lines!(ax, 1:size(target, 1), target[:, 1],
+            color = logI_color, linewidth = 3, label = "Median")
+        for i in 1:n_levels
+            band!(ax, 1:size(target, 1), target[:, (2 * i)], target[:, (2 * i) + 1],
+                color = (c, opacity_scale[i]), label = "")
+        end
+    end
+
+    fig
+end
+
+##
+fig = prior_predictive_plot(config, res, results["epiprob"]; ps = [0.025, 0.1, 0.25])
+##
+gen_y_t = mapreduce(hcat, res.generated) do gen
+    gen.generated_y_t
+end |> X -> timeseries_samples_into_quantiles(X, [0.025, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.975])
+
+##
+fig = Figure()
+ax_logIt = Axis(fig[1, 1];
+    xticks = vcat(1, 5:5:50)    # xlabel
+)
+
+for i in 1:5
+    lines!(ax_logIt, gen_y_t[:, i], color = :black, alpha = 0.5)
+end
+
+# hlines!(ax, [1.0], color = :red, linestyle = :dash)
+fig

pipeline/test/plotting/plotting_tests.jl

@@ -1,2 +1,3 @@
 include("test_utils.jl")
 include("test_plot_funcs.jl")
+include("prior_pred_plot.jl")

pipeline/test/plotting/prior_pred_plot.jl

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+@testset "Prior pred plotting" begin
+    using CairoMakie
+    #pick a random scenario
+    pipetype = [SmoothOutbreakPipeline, MeasuresOutbreakPipeline,
+        SmoothEndemicPipeline, RoughEndemicPipeline] |> rand
+    P = pipetype(; testmode = true, nchains = 1, ndraws = 2000, priorpredictive = true)
+    inference_config = make_inference_configs(P) |> rand
+
+    #Add missing data
+    missingdata = Dict("y_t" => missing, "I_t" => fill(1.0, 100), "truth_I0" => 1.0,
+        "truth_gi_mean" => inference_config["gi_mean"])
+    results = generate_inference_results(missingdata, inference_config, P)
+
+    fig = prior_predictive_plot(results["inference_config"], results["inference_results"],
+        results["epiprob"]; ps = [0.025, 0.1, 0.25])
+
+    @test fig isa Figure
+end