Force 5 GW of electrolysis in Germany in 2030

[toniseibold]

Since the German government adjusted the goals for installed capacity of electrolysis units, this PR adds the boundary condition to have at least 5GW installed by 2030.
In a coarse resolution run the following development of installed capacity is observed:

Before asking for a review for this PR make sure to complete the following checklist:

• Workflow with target rule ariadne_all completes without errors
• The logic of export_ariadne_variables has been adapted to the changes
• One or several figures that validate the changes in the PR have been posted as a comment
• A brief description of the changes has been added to Changelog.md
• The latest main has been merged into the PR
• The config has a new prefix of the format YYYYMMDDdescriptive_title

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⚠️ Config changes detected!

Results may differ due to these changes:

diff --git a/config/config.yaml b/config/config.yaml
index 007b45f..5365e92 100644
--- a/config/config.yaml
+++ b/config/config.yaml
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#run
 run:
 
-  prefix: 241010_fix_get_data
+  prefix: 241010_force_electrolysis_capacity
 
   name:
   # - CurrentPolicies

Ariadne Variables

Comparison

	NRMSE	Pearson
Capacity|Hydrogen|Gas|w/o CCS	0.806	0.638
Investment|Energy Supply|Hydrogen|Gas|w/ CCS	0.692	-0.316
Secondary Energy|Electricity|Hydro	0.598	-0.288
Capacity|Hydrogen|Gas|w/ CCS	0.512	-0.636
Primary Energy|Biomass|Liquids	0.507	-0.262
Final Energy|Bunkers|Navigation|Liquids|Petroleum	0.489	0.341
Capacity|Gases|Biomass	0.489	0.332
Capacity|Gases	0.489	0.332
Final Energy|Transportation|Liquids|Biomass	0.484	-0.200
Final Energy|Industry excl Non-Energy Use|Liquids|Biomass	0.483	0.105
Secondary Energy|Liquids|Biomass	0.475	0.533
Final Energy|Liquids|Biomass	0.472	-0.122
Investment|Energy Supply|Gases|Biomass	0.466	0.263
Investment|Energy Supply|Gases	0.466	0.263
Price|Secondary Energy|Gases|Hydrogen	0.456	0.000
Capacity Additions|Gases	0.453	-0.165
Capacity Additions|Gases|Biomass	0.453	-0.165
Capacity Additions|Hydrogen|Gas|w/ CCS	0.451	-0.200
Final Energy|Residential and Commercial|Liquids|Biomass	0.439	0.925
Capacity|Hydrogen|Gas	0.425	1.000
Emissions|CO2|Energy|Supply|Gases	0.407	0.353
Capacity Additions|Hydrogen|Gas|w/o CCS	0.397	0.643
Primary Energy|Biomass|Gases	0.397	0.389
Capacity|Electricity|Gas|OC	0.367	0.706
Capacity|Electricity|Storage Converter	0.365	0.445
Investment|Energy Supply|Hydrogen|Gas|w/o CCS	0.280	0.811
Investment|Energy Supply|Methanol	0.260	0.852
Emissions|CO2|Energy|Supply|Liquids and Gases	0.249	0.849
Trade|Secondary Energy|Methanol|Hydrogen|Gross Import|Volume	0.245	0.816
Trade|Secondary Energy|Methanol|Hydrogen|Volume	0.227	0.848
Final Energy|Industry|Liquids|Biomass	0.222	0.882
Price|Secondary Energy|Gases|Biomass	0.217	0.854
Emissions|Gross Fossil CO2|Energy|Supply|Hydrogen	0.213	0.966
Emissions|CO2|Energy|Supply|Hydrogen	0.213	0.966
Emissions|CO2|Efuels|Liquids	0.202	0.930
Final Energy|Non-Energy Use|Liquids|Biomass	0.195	0.909
Capacity Additions|Hydrogen|Electricity	0.190	0.869
Secondary Energy|Electricity|Biomass|Gaseous and Liquid	0.189	0.000
Investment|Energy Supply|Hydrogen|Electricity	0.187	0.894
Secondary Energy|Methanol	0.180	0.968
Capacity Additions|Hydrogen	0.167	0.883
Capacity|Methanol	0.167	0.972
Capacity|Hydrogen|Electricity	0.162	0.968
Final Energy|Bunkers|Aviation|Liquids|Petroleum	0.157	0.942
Capacity Additions|Heat|Gas	0.153	0.899
Secondary Energy|Hydrogen|Gas	0.144	0.997
Capacity Additions|Hydrogen|Gas	0.141	0.996
Secondary Energy Input|Electricity|Hydrogen	0.140	0.965
Primary Energy|Gas|Hydrogen	0.137	0.999
Secondary Energy|Hydrogen|Electricity	0.136	0.967
Investment|Energy Supply|Electricity|Transmission|Offwind-AC	0.134	0.967
Investment|Energy Supply|Heat|Processes	0.131	0.954
Investment|Energy Supply|Heat|Gas	0.128	0.944
Emissions|CO2|Energy|Supply|Liquids	0.126	0.983
Investment|Energy Supply|Hydrogen	0.124	0.940
Investment|Energy Supply|Hydrogen|Gas	0.117	0.997
Capacity|Heat|Processes	0.115	0.991
Trade|Secondary Energy|Gases|Biomass|Volume	0.113	0.946
Secondary Energy|Hydrogen	0.108	0.979
Capacity Additions|Methanol	0.107	0.962
Secondary Energy|Heat|Other	0.106	0.987
Capacity Additions|Heat|Processes	0.101	0.965
Price|Secondary Energy|Liquids	0.101	0.972

NRMSE: Normalized (combined-min-max) Root Mean Square Error
Pearson: Pearson correlation coefficient
Threshold: NRMSE > 0.1
Only variables reaching the threshold are shown. Find the equivalent plot for all of them below.

Plots

Main branch	Feature branch

⚠️ Note: Only the first 20 variables are shown, but more are above the threshold. Find all of them in the artifacts.

General

Plots comparison

Main branch	Feature branch

Files comparison

	Status	NRMSE	MAE (norm)
csvs/metrics.csv	⚠️Changed	0.003	0.06
csvs/curtailment.csv	⚠️Changed	0.000	0.10
csvs/price_statistics.csv	⚠️Changed	0.007	0.21
csvs/cumulative_cost.csv	⚠️Changed	0.002	0.15
csvs/nodal_cfs.csv	⚠️ NaN mismatch
csvs/nodal_supply_energy.csv	⚠️ NaN mismatch
csvs/nodal_costs.csv	⚠️ NaN mismatch
csvs/nodal_capacities.csv	⚠️ NaN mismatch
csvs/cfs.csv	⚠️ NaN mismatch
csvs/market_values.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.023	0.03
csvs/supply.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.002	0.02
csvs/prices.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.01
csvs/costs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.003	0.00
csvs/capacities.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.004	0.01
csvs/supply_energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.002	0.02
csvs/energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.001	0.01
csvs/weighted_prices.csv	✅ Equal

NRMSE: Normalized (combined-min-max) Root Mean Square Error
MAE (norm): Mean Absolute Error on normalized data (min-max)
Status Threshold: MAE (norm) > 0.05 and NRMSE > 0.3

Model Metrics

Benchmarks

Comparing force_electrolysis_cap (67223c5) with main (7d9d9b4).
Branch is 2 commits ahead and 0 commits behind.
Last updated on 2024-10-10 18:35:56 CEST.