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This project attempts to project the doctor deficit in Germany over the next 20 years (2024 - 2044) based on population trends and retirement age, using both current and historical data. The analysis dives further to ascertain what the result of this projection would mean for Africa.

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE DOCTOR DEFICIT PROJECTION IN GERMANY IN NEXT 20 YEARS

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This project attempts to project the doctor deficit in Germany over the next 20 years (2024 - 2044) based on population trends and retirement age, using both current and historical data. The analysis dives further to ascertain what the result of this projection would mean for Africa.

Project Description

The project dives into analyzing the projected doctor deficit in Germany over the next 20 years by considering factors such as population trends, retirement age, and the number of medical graduates. The analysis includes estimating the supply and demand for doctors, forecasting the doctor deficit, and visualizing the projected trends. Additionally, the implications of this doctor deficit in Germany for Africa are discussed, focusing on potential impacts such as brain drain and healthcare disparities. The task requires data collection, exploration, analysis, and visualization to understand the evolving healthcare landscape in Germany and its potential effects on Africa.

Data Collection

The dataset includes information on doctors in Germany, with figures on practicing doctors, retirement age, labor force, population, age distribution, and medical graduates. Key data ranges from 1960 to 2070, covering percentages, projections, and numbers. A few of the data sources had established research analysis with projected figures for some of the key variables such as mean retirement age.

Data Sources

  1. Mean Retirement Age in Germany - Projected
  2. Number of doctors in Germany from 1990 to 2023
  3. Total Population Data
  4. Germany 2024 Population Figure

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Key Insights

The number of practicing doctors in Germany has increased steadily from 301,000 in 2002 to 428,500 in 2023, with a projected growth in the coming years. Germany's population is expected to reach 85 million by 2040, while the number of medical graduates rose to 10,320 in 2021.

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Results and Graph

The projected increase in the aging population, particularly those aged 67 and above, will lead to a significant deficit of doctors in Germany over the next 20 years. The analysis shows a growing gap between the supply and demand of doctors, highlighting the need for strategic planning to address this issue.

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Implications for Africa

The projected doctor deficit in Germany may lead to increased recruitment of doctors from African countries, exacerbating brain drain and healthcare disparities. Addressing this imbalance will require international collaboration and investment in healthcare infrastructure and education in Africa.

Acknowledgements

This project is a part of the project requirement required to graduate from Stage 8 at HNG 11 internship for the Data Analyst Track. Special appreciation to the organizers of the internship, and to my esteemed team members in team Bulldozer - Blessing Laweh, Adesola Ogundipe, Abena Agyemang Gyasi, Omolola Alonge - who together we made it as HNG Finalist in the data analyst track.

About

This project attempts to project the doctor deficit in Germany over the next 20 years (2024 - 2044) based on population trends and retirement age, using both current and historical data. The analysis dives further to ascertain what the result of this projection would mean for Africa.

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