Implement predict method in SARIMAXModel, AutoARIMAModel, `Seas…

…onalMovingAverageModel`, `DeadlineMovingAverageModel` (#948)

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 - `DirectEnsemble` ([#824](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/824))
 - 
 - 
-- 
+- Implement predict method in `SARIMAXModel`, `AutoARIMAModel`, `SeasonalMovingAverageModel`, `DeadlineMovingAverageModel` ([#948](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/948))
 - Make `SeasonalMovingAverageModel` and `DeadlineMovingAverageModel` to work with context ([#917](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/917))
 - 
 - Add `predict` method to models ([#935](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/935))

etna/analysis/outliers/prediction_interval_outliers.py

@@ -82,7 +82,7 @@ def get_anomalies_prediction_interval(
     model_instance = model(**model_params)
     model_instance.fit(ts_inner)
     lower_p, upper_p = [(1 - interval_width) / 2, (1 + interval_width) / 2]
-    prediction_interval = model_instance.forecast(
+    prediction_interval = model_instance.predict(
         deepcopy(ts_inner), prediction_interval=True, quantiles=[lower_p, upper_p]
     )
     for segment in ts_inner.segments:

etna/models/deadline_ma.py

@@ -135,14 +135,32 @@ def _get_context_beginning(
 
         return first_index
 
+    def _make_predictions(self, result_template: pd.Series, context: pd.Series, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
+        """Make predictions using ``result_template`` as a base and ``context`` as a context."""
+        index = result_template.index
+        start_idx = len(result_template) - prediction_size
+        end_idx = len(result_template)
+        for i in range(start_idx, end_idx):
+            for w in range(1, self.window + 1):
+                if self.seasonality == SeasonalityMode.month:
+                    prev_date = result_template.index[i] - pd.DateOffset(months=w)
+                elif self.seasonality == SeasonalityMode.year:
+                    prev_date = result_template.index[i] - pd.DateOffset(years=w)
+
+                result_template.loc[index[i]] += context.loc[prev_date]
+
+            result_template.loc[index[i]] = result_template.loc[index[i]] / self.window
+
+        result_values = result_template.values[-prediction_size:]
+        return result_values
+
     def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
-        """
-        Compute predictions from a DeadlineMovingAverageModel.
+        """Compute autoregressive forecasts.
 
         Parameters
         ----------
-        df: pd.DataFrame
-            Used only for getting the horizon of forecast and timestamps.
+        df:
+            Features dataframe.
         prediction_size:
             Number of last timestamps to leave after making prediction.
             Previous timestamps will be used as a context for models that require it.
@@ -156,41 +174,67 @@ def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
         ------
         ValueError:
             if context isn't big enough
+        ValueError:
+            if forecast context contains NaNs
         """
         context_beginning = self._get_context_beginning(
             df=df, prediction_size=prediction_size, seasonality=self.seasonality, window=self.window
         )
 
+        df = df.set_index("timestamp")
         df_history = df.iloc[:-prediction_size]
-        history_targets = df_history["target"]
-        history_timestamps = df_history["timestamp"]
-        history_targets = history_targets.loc[history_timestamps >= context_beginning]
-        history_timestamps = history_timestamps.loc[history_timestamps >= context_beginning]
-        future_timestamps = df["timestamp"].iloc[-prediction_size:]
+        history = df_history["target"]
+        history = history[history.index >= context_beginning]
+        if np.any(history.isnull()):
+            raise ValueError("There are NaNs in a forecast context, forecast method required context to filled!")
+
+        index = pd.date_range(start=context_beginning, end=df.index[-1], freq=self._freq)
+        result_template = np.append(history.values, np.zeros(prediction_size))
+        result_template = pd.Series(result_template, index=index)
+        result_values = self._make_predictions(
+            result_template=result_template, context=result_template, prediction_size=prediction_size
+        )
+        return result_values
 
-        index = pd.date_range(start=context_beginning, end=future_timestamps.iloc[-1])
-        res = np.append(history_targets.values, np.zeros(prediction_size))
-        res = pd.DataFrame(res)
-        res.index = index
-        for i in range(len(history_targets), len(res)):
-            for w in range(1, self.window + 1):
-                if self.seasonality == SeasonalityMode.month:
-                    prev_date = res.index[i] - pd.DateOffset(months=w)
-                elif self.seasonality == SeasonalityMode.year:
-                    prev_date = res.index[i] - pd.DateOffset(years=w)
+    def predict(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
+        """Compute predictions using true target data as context.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        df:
+            Features dataframe.
+        prediction_size:
+            Number of last timestamps to leave after making prediction.
+            Previous timestamps will be used as a context for models that require it.
 
-                if prev_date <= history_timestamps.iloc[-1]:
-                    res.loc[index[i]] += history_targets.loc[history_timestamps == prev_date].values
-                else:
-                    res.loc[index[i]] += res.loc[prev_date].values
+        Returns
+        -------
+        :
+            Array with predictions.
 
-            res.loc[index[i]] = res.loc[index[i]] / self.window
+        Raises
+        ------
+        ValueError:
+            if context isn't big enough
+        ValueError:
+            if there are NaNs in a target column on timestamps that are required to make predictions
+        """
+        context_beginning = self._get_context_beginning(
+            df=df, prediction_size=prediction_size, seasonality=self.seasonality, window=self.window
+        )
 
-        res = res.values.ravel()[-prediction_size:]
-        return res
+        df = df.set_index("timestamp")
+        context = df["target"]
+        context = context[context.index >= context_beginning]
+        if np.any(np.isnan(context)):
+            raise ValueError("There are NaNs in a target column, predict method requires target to be filled!")
 
-    def predict(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        raise NotImplementedError("Method predict isn't currently implemented!")
+        index = pd.date_range(start=df.index[-prediction_size], end=df.index[-1], freq=self._freq)
+        result_template = pd.Series(np.zeros(prediction_size), index=index)
+        result_values = self._make_predictions(
+            result_template=result_template, context=context, prediction_size=prediction_size
+        )
+        return result_values
 
     @property
     def context_size(self) -> int:

etna/models/sarimax.py

@@ -67,24 +67,10 @@ def fit(self, df: pd.DataFrame, regressors: List[str]) -> "_SARIMAXBaseAdapter":
 
         return self
 
-    def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Sequence[float]) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        """
-        Compute autoregressive predictions from a SARIMAX model.
-
-        Parameters
-        ----------
-        df:
-            Features dataframe
-        prediction_interval:
-             If True returns prediction interval for forecast
-        quantiles:
-            Levels of prediction distribution
-
-        Returns
-        -------
-        :
-            DataFrame with predictions
-        """
+    def _make_prediction(
+        self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Sequence[float], dynamic: bool
+    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Make predictions taking into account ``dynamic`` parameter."""
         if self._fit_results is None:
             raise ValueError("Model is not fitted! Fit the model before calling predict method!")
 
@@ -106,14 +92,19 @@ def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Seque
 
         if prediction_interval:
             forecast, _ = seasonal_prediction_with_confidence(
-                arima_res=self._fit_results, start=start_idx, end=end_idx, X=exog_future, alpha=0.05
+                arima_res=self._fit_results, start=start_idx, end=end_idx, X=exog_future, alpha=0.05, dynamic=dynamic
             )
             y_pred = pd.DataFrame({"mean": forecast})
             for quantile in quantiles:
                 # set alpha in the way to get a desirable quantile
                 alpha = min(quantile * 2, (1 - quantile) * 2)
                 _, borders = seasonal_prediction_with_confidence(
-                    arima_res=self._fit_results, start=start_idx, end=end_idx, X=exog_future, alpha=alpha
+                    arima_res=self._fit_results,
+                    start=start_idx,
+                    end=end_idx,
+                    X=exog_future,
+                    alpha=alpha,
+                    dynamic=dynamic,
                 )
                 if quantile < 1 / 2:
                     series = borders[:, 0]
@@ -122,7 +113,7 @@ def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Seque
                 y_pred[f"mean_{quantile:.4g}"] = series
         else:
             forecast, _ = seasonal_prediction_with_confidence(
-                arima_res=self._fit_results, start=start_idx, end=end_idx, X=exog_future, alpha=0.05
+                arima_res=self._fit_results, start=start_idx, end=end_idx, X=exog_future, alpha=0.05, dynamic=dynamic
             )
             y_pred = pd.DataFrame({"mean": forecast})
 
@@ -132,6 +123,26 @@ def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Seque
         y_pred = y_pred.rename(rename_dict, axis=1)
         return y_pred
 
+    def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Sequence[float]) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """
+        Compute autoregressive predictions from a SARIMAX model.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        df:
+            Features dataframe
+        prediction_interval:
+             If True returns prediction interval for forecast
+        quantiles:
+            Levels of prediction distribution
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        :
+            DataFrame with predictions
+        """
+        return self._make_prediction(df=df, prediction_interval=prediction_interval, quantiles=quantiles, dynamic=True)
+
     def predict(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Sequence[float]) -> pd.DataFrame:
         """
         Compute predictions from a SARIMAX model and use true in-sample data as lags if possible.
@@ -150,7 +161,7 @@ def predict(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_interval: bool, quantiles: Sequen
         :
             DataFrame with predictions
         """
-        return self.forecast(df=df, prediction_interval=prediction_interval, quantiles=quantiles)
+        return self._make_prediction(df=df, prediction_interval=prediction_interval, quantiles=quantiles, dynamic=False)
 
     @abstractmethod
     def _get_fit_results(self, endog: pd.Series, exog: pd.DataFrame) -> SARIMAXResultsWrapper:

etna/models/seasonal_ma.py

@@ -63,13 +63,12 @@ def fit(self, df: pd.DataFrame, regressors: List[str]) -> "_SeasonalMovingAverag
         return self
 
     def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
-        """
-        Compute predictions from a SeasonalMovingAverage model.
+        """Compute autoregressive forecasts.
 
         Parameters
         ----------
         df:
-            Used only for getting the horizon of forecast
+            Features dataframe.
         prediction_size:
             Number of last timestamps to leave after making prediction.
             Previous timestamps will be used as a context for models that require it.
@@ -83,6 +82,8 @@ def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
         ------
         ValueError:
             if context isn't big enough
+        ValueError:
+            if forecast context contains NaNs
         """
         expected_length = prediction_size + self.shift
         if len(df) < expected_length:
@@ -91,14 +92,52 @@ def forecast(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
             )
 
         history = df["target"][-expected_length:-prediction_size]
+        if np.any(history.isnull()):
+            raise ValueError("There are NaNs in a forecast context, forecast method required context to filled!")
+
         res = np.append(history, np.zeros(prediction_size))
         for i in range(self.shift, len(res)):
             res[i] = res[i - self.shift : i : self.seasonality].mean()
         y_pred = res[-prediction_size:]
         return y_pred
 
-    def predict(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        raise NotImplementedError("Method predict isn't currently implemented!")
+    def predict(self, df: pd.DataFrame, prediction_size: int) -> np.ndarray:
+        """Compute predictions using true target data as context.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        df:
+            Features dataframe.
+        prediction_size:
+            Number of last timestamps to leave after making prediction.
+            Previous timestamps will be used as a context for models that require it.
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        :
+            Array with predictions.
+
+        Raises
+        ------
+        ValueError:
+            if context isn't big enough
+        ValueError:
+            if there are NaNs in a target column on timestamps that are required to make predictions
+        """
+        expected_length = prediction_size + self.shift
+        if len(df) < expected_length:
+            raise ValueError(
+                "Given context isn't big enough, try to decrease context_size, prediction_size of increase length of given dataframe!"
+            )
+
+        context = df["target"][-expected_length:].values
+        if np.any(np.isnan(context)):
+            raise ValueError("There are NaNs in a target column, predict method requires target to be filled!")
+
+        res = np.zeros(prediction_size)
+        for res_idx, context_idx in enumerate(range(self.shift, len(context))):
+            res[res_idx] = context[context_idx - self.shift : context_idx : self.seasonality].mean()
+        return res
 
 
 class SeasonalMovingAverageModel(